Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
